Why Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.