Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
